Chance-quality status
The variance layer is live, but event-derived shot diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode. Historical StatsBomb seasons are archive material here, not current diagnosis input.
Loading
Core table and fixture data render first. Analyst layers attach progressively after that.
Club hub
Deep dive into the live model state for Chelsea: current standing, projected finish, next fixtures, recent xG momentum, and how ClubElo compares with the internal rating pass.
Current state
#10
Team Snapshot
Performance Index verdict, rating split, table context, role leaders, shot and pass maps, plus the structured analyst brief.
Goal timing
35 scored · 34 conceded · 38 matches
Peak scoring window
50-60' · 0.18/match
Peak conceding window
0-10' · 0.18/match
Performance Index
Top-line read
Mixed deterioration
Chelsea are creating less, protecting themselves less well, and also converting below their stronger-season levels. The data reads as a mixed downturn rather than one clean single-cause slump.
Sub-indices
-0.88 xG/90 against the season baseline.
-0.46 xGA/90 better than season norm.
+0.18 goals versus xG swing per match.
Waiting for dated territorial pass coverage to score control properly.
Opposition, rest, selection continuity, and current squad stress against the club's own season norm.
| Metric | Last 5 5 matches 100% xG coverage | 10-18 to 11-22 5 matches 100% xG coverage | Season 38 matches 100% xG coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 2.40 | 1.37 |
| Goal diff / game | -1.00 | +1.60 | +0.16 |
| xG for / game | 1.02 | 2.56 | 1.90 |
| xGA / game | 1.99 | 0.91 | 1.53 |
| xG diff / game | -0.97 | +1.66 |
Consistency & variance
Variable
PI-2 treats consistency as part results volatility and part process volatility. The xG and execution spreads show whether the recent run is simply noisier than the club’s usual season shape.
Event-depth status
Chance-quality status
The variance layer is live, but event-derived shot diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode. Historical StatsBomb seasons are archive material here, not current diagnosis input.
Provider requirement
These PI layers only come back when the product has a current or recent Premier League event provider. Do not read the dormant state as a hidden historical fallback.
Territorial status
Territorial control is paused in live Premier League mode. The free StatsBomb archive in this repo is not current enough to support field-tilt or PPDA claims honestly.
Game-state status
Game-state diagnosis is also paused until a current event feed with score context exists. Historical open-data shots are not being stretched into live 2025/26 stories.
What changed?
Recent xG difference is -2.63 per match against the club's best five-game spell.
Finishing swing is +0.35 goals per match against the season baseline.
The last five have come against average opponent rank 10.6, versus 10.5 across the season.
Lineup continuity is -0.06 against the season norm.
What might help
Chance creation has softened from the club's peak spell
Current xG for is -1.54 per match versus the best five-game stretch.
What might help: Look for ways to recover central access, cleaner box occupation, or the creator combinations that were present during the stronger run.
The defence is allowing too much before the finish even arrives
Recent xGA has risen +0.46 per match against season level.
What might help: Tighten rest defence and the first line of pressure instead of only reacting to the conceded-goals count.
Recent trend
Last 5 vs Last 10
| Metric | Last 5 | Last 10 | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPG | 0.80 | 0.70 | 1.37 |
| xG for / game | 1.02 | 1.40 | 1.90 |
| xGA / game | 1.99 | 1.63 | 1.53 |
| xG diff / game | -0.97 | -0.23 | +0.37 |
| Execution swing | -0.03 | -0.77 | -0.21 |
Best defensive spell
10-25 to 11-30
Unbeaten spell
6-match unbeaten run
Chelsea has dated xG coverage for 5/5 matches in the current window and 38/38 across the season sample used here.
PI-2: Chance-quality shot diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode. The available StatsBomb feed is archival, not current-season evidence. PI-3: Territorial diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode. Historical StatsBomb open data is not a current control signal for this product. PI-4: Game-state diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode until a current event feed with score-context shots exists.
Model snapshot
Hybrid Elo Rating
1599
⚠ Divergence: 355 pts
Table context
#8 Brighton & Hove Albion
GD +6
53
points
#9 Brentford
GD +3
53
points
#10 Chelsea
GD +6
52
points
#11 Fulham
GD -4
52
points
#12 Newcastle United
GD -2
49
points
Fan sentiment
Loading…
Role board
Selected role profile
DEF / Protector-led / High load
Recent output: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0.0 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 22 straight starts.
Top finisher
João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus
0.27 finisher / 0.13 recent attack
Top creator
Pedro Lomba Neto
0.14 creator / 0.08 recent creator
Top connector
Enzo Fernández
0.28 control / MID
Top protector
Trevoh Chalobah
0.63 defence / Protector-led
Best current form
Trevoh Chalobah
0 / 100 form / 0.04 recent attack
Highest load
Enzo Fernández
86% load / 0 form
Run-in map
Run-in outlook unavailable
Remaining-fixture outlook could not be assembled for this club from the current unresolved fixture set.
Analyst brief
Chelsea are tracking as their weakest same-stage Premier League return across the last 3 seasons.
Chelsea are #10 now and project to finish #10, with 52 points from 38 matches in 2025/26.
This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.
Chelsea are tracking as their weakest same-stage Premier League return across the last 3 seasons.
Same-stage rank 3/3; worst benchmark 2025/26.
Chelsea are materially behind last season's pace at the same stage.
2025/26: 52 pts vs 2024/25: 69 pts after 38 matches.
Chelsea are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.
5 absences; availability impact 29%; injuries 5, suspensions 0.
Chelsea are carrying a weaker full-season points pace than last year.
Projected pace +52.0 vs last season stage pace +69.0 (-17.0).
| +0.37 |
| Goals - xG / game | -0.02 | -0.56 | -0.37 |
| Defensive delta / game | -0.01 | +0.51 | +0.16 |
| Average opponent rank | 10.6 | 15.8 | 10.5 |
| Average rest days | 7.2 | 9.8 | 7.6 |
| Lineup continuity | 65% | N/A | 71% |
| Player load index | 100% | N/A | 100% |
Current squad stress is a real part of the picture
5 missing players and 29% availability impact are already weighing on the live team state.
What might help: Prioritise role-preserving replacements and rotation management before assuming tactical principles alone will solve the dip.